2021-09-17 Intelligence Brief

#IntelligenceBrief

China

Response to AUKUS

The Chinese wasted no time in laying out the implications of the AUKUS partnership announcement.

The Chinese quasi-official daily Global Times railed against the announcement, and closed with a pointed warning to Australian political leadership that it considers support of Taiwan an existential red line.

“Once the Australian army fights the People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Straits or the South China Sea, military targets in Australia will inevitably become targets of Chinese missiles. Since Australia has become an anti-China spearhead, the country should prepare for the worst.”

Hong Kong

The purge of non-loyalists in the Hong Kong government continues.

Another 129 members of the government who refused to swear oaths of loyalty have departed via “termination of employment, retirement orders, resignation or dismissal for disciplinary offenses. The others are expected to leave soon,” per the Global Times

Comment:

The consolidation of power under Emperor Xi continues.

Ethiopia

Reports of atrocities against civilians by all parties continue to trickle out of the Tigray region, with refugees reportedly suffering reprisal attacks.

Comment:

The conflict is becoming entrenched, with a widening humanitarian crisis on the horizon. A broader destabilization of Ethiopia would have ripple effects into neighboring Sudan, Eritrea, and the broader East African region.

Guinea

West African leaders met to discuss responses to Guinea’s recent coup.

Comment:

After a lull, coups and broader instability across Africa are on the rise. More unrest is likely, and will create seams for terrorists and traffickers to exploit.