2021-09-15 Intelligence Brief
Periods of analytical absence are common in any form of structured analysis.
Developing a prioritized list of areas to review first, if an analysis process has not been maintained, is a good first step to “catching up.”
A well-maintained, frequently updated list of Critical Intelligence Requirements (CIR)s is paramount to beginning this process.
As we begin production, we will evaluate current status and compare to our most recent judgements of the following areas, and expand from there.
- Review fighting data and understand Taliban scope of control.
- What is the status of the remnants of the former Northern Alliance that had retreated to the Panjshir Valley?
- Has the Taliban established civil and social services?
- What is the response of the population to imposition of stricter measures of control?
- What is the status of the fighting, and in particular the ability of the government and neighboring states of the fighting areas to sustain a high-tempo conflict presence.
- What statements if any, or planned protests, exist by far right or far left groups?
- What are the economic indicators, in particular for inflation, showing about any potential for a rapid economic disruption
- Recent media reports indicates sustained national mobilization – is it to war or party control, or both?
- What have been the results of the acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender
- Has the return of the Taliban resulted in any ripple effects to the stability of the disputed areas?
- Are any recent global trends appearing across our instability indicators list?
- Is the perceived increase in dramatic climate events backed up by data, and if so, what is the actual scope and economic impact? Should holdings be adjusted?
- What is the state of commodities and assets globally? What are the key shortages?
- Have any military strategies or budgets been announced that indicate a strategic shift or pivot?